Over the summer, we have been following the markets week by week: central bank announcements, macro statistics, flow data and the analysis published around them. We have compiled the material into three reports that you will find as attachments at the bottom of this post. This is the picture they paint together.

The summer was dramatic on the surface. Hostilities between the US and Iran resumed on July 10, pushing Brent oil above $100 a barrel in less than two weeks. Interest rates rose broadly, the US thirty-year yield broke 5.2 percent for the first time in twenty years, and when the Fed held interest rates at the end of July, three out of twelve members voted to raise them. On the night of July 31, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market with the US at its side, for the first time in fifteen years. Then everything turned around: a ceasefire brought down oil, a weak US jobs report removed the premium for increases, and by mid-August world indices were at new records. The report The summer when the market changed hands three times walks through the process with a timeline of the events that shaped the period.

The fact that the market managed to withstand the stress is largely due to the reporting season. We have followed it from a credit perspective, at sector level. Nordic industry grew 8.6 percent organically, the highest figure in Swedbank's measurement series, with rising margins and a stagnant debt. Companies are therefore growing without borrowing. Order books hit records in mining equipment, trucks and defense. The credit market rewarded this with lower risk premiums. According to DNB Carnegie's index report, Nordic high yield gave positive returns in a July when both American and European high yield retreated. At the same time, spreads are now pricing in most things, and July's repricing of an entire sub-segment was the first clear AI-related repricing in Nordic credit. The full review can be found in Credit market quarter.

The third report follows the money. Swedish savers have invested a net 95 billion kronor in funds this year, and the distribution says something about the times we are in. Money market and bond funds have grown by almost seven percent of their managed capital, equity funds by 0.4. Under the equity umbrella, Swedish funds have taken in money while North American and sector funds have lost money. Savers have not abandoned shares, they have moved them home and at the same time built an interest rate buffer. In July, the inflows widened for the first time in a long time, the same broadening that is visible in the global stock market upswing. That is the content of Where does the fund money go?

Three threads run through all three reports. The rally has broadened, from a few big tech companies to more sectors, regions and asset classes. The interest rate regime has shifted, with the central bank’s summer announcements being about hikes rather than cuts, although US data in August softened the picture. And AI expansion has become a bond market issue, meaning the next big repricing could come via credit spreads rather than equity prices.

The reports are based on public statistics from the Swedish Fund Management Association, central bank announcements and market quotations, together with published market commentary from SEB, Swedbank and DNB Carnegie. All graphs are our own processing.

Attachments

• The summer when the market changed hands three times (PDF)
• Credit market quarter: sector picture after Q2 (PDF)
• Where does the fund money go? Swedish and Nordic flows in the summer of 2026 (PDF)

These are market overviews and not investment advice. Historical returns are not indicative of future returns.